Propaganda narratives have been used throughout history to manipulate public perceptions and opinions in favour of a particular agenda. In the context of the war in Ukraine, Russia has used a whole range of propaganda narratives to support its point of view and influence international opinion. These narratives are designed both to gain support for Russia's actions militarily and to undermine the credibility of Ukraine and its allies.
In this analysis we have extracted with the help of a software the posts published on Telegram channel RT News (@rtnews) for 10 days (14-23 August 2023). The channel has more than 212,000 followers and is the main source of information distribution on Telegram for the official RT channel. This TV channel, run by Margarita Simonyan - the main "voice of the Kremlin", is an important tool of Russian propaganda. The channel is mainly used to promote the Kremlin's point of view abroad and undermine trust in Western democratic institutions, and is best known for its news programmes and debates critical of the West and NATO.
Structured in a databaselink, the articles were associated with previously identified narratives, and the whole process of identifying correspondences between articles and narrative types was done using the artificial intelligence (AI) model Chat GPT-3.5 developed by OpenAI. GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer).
Based on the context provided, Chat GPT was unable to provide rankings for many of the posts uploaded for analysis by Chat GPT. Therefore, the list of posts had to be reviewed for corrections, and sometimes the artificial intelligence deviated from the stated requirement, trying to introduce new narrative patterns, such as "Russia's actions in Ukraine" or "Ukraine may join NATO by ceding territories to Russia".
Here it is important to note that the list of narratives and the items provided to the AI have different levels of connection and relevance to each other, and in some cases the items may not have aligned exactly with the given narrative categories, which is why some anomalies were generated in the GPT Chat responses.
Thus, about 49% of the analysed narratives could not be classified and the share of unidentified narratives by Chat GPT rose to 78%.
Data on the key narratives (flagship themes) of Russian propaganda identified
Throughout the period under review, the RT News telegram channel with postings in English (aimed at international audiences) covered the subject of the war with Ukraine on a daily basis, including statements or actions by Russian and Ukrainian officials alike in relation to the subject of the war, international sanctions, refugees, etc.
This is easy to see if you follow the daily frequency of posts/news about Ukraine or related to this topic:
The top 5 pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives focused on the following categories:
Discrediting or ridiculing representatives of the Ukrainian authorities. Spreading messages of discrediting and ridiculing Ukrainian officials is a global campaign launched by Russia and its supporters in Europe to demonise Ukraine. The dissemination of these messages should show the public that power in Ukraine is in the hands of incompetent individuals who cannot cope with performing their duties as statesmen, so Russia should 'help' in this regard. Such messages are also aimed at undermining confidence in political leadership among Ukrainians and creating unstable socio-political attitudes. In order to discredit the Ukrainian authorities, RT spread the following narratives:
- Ukraine depends on weapons supplied by disgraced lawmaker - NYT
- Ukrainian authorities admit that the Ukrainian effort to "dehumanise" Russian soldiers was a mistake.
- The regional heads of Ukraine's recruitment centres are corrupt and have therefore been dismissed by Zelensky.
- Zelensky is dangerous for the Ukrainian state.
- The regime in Kiev is a bunch of lunatics.
Discrediting the Ukrainian military. Pro-Kremlin propaganda is trying to convince the public that the Ukrainian army is a base for war criminals. In particular, pro-Russian media sources publish reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are shelling civilians both on temporarily occupied territory and on Russian territory, making any peace negotiations impossible. Russia also claims that the Ukrainian army is unprofessional, demoralised and unwilling to fight. In addition, allegations are regularly made that the Ukrainian command treats soldiers with disrespect.By spreading this narrative, pro-Russian media sources justify the war crimes of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, argue the need for the war to continue, and undermine Ukrainian citizens' trust in their own army. In this case, we have the following examples of narratives:
- Ukraine is hastily moving military equipment from one place to another for fear of Russian strikes.
- RFK Jr. derides F-16 jets for Ukraine - "A disaster for humanity".
- Ukrainian armour is no match for the Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
- Ukrainian men don't want to fight anymore.
The narrative on weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western states. Russia is spreading falsehoods that Ukrainians are abusing Western weapons or that these weapons are incapable of changing the fate of the war. The purpose of this narrative is to create the impression that Ukraine is an unreliable partner that cannot ensure the proper use of the aid provided. It is therefore assumed that it makes no sense to provide weapons or other forms of assistance to Ukraine.
These messages were also used to discredit the Ukrainian government (as corrupt and incapable of fulfilling its obligations) and the Ukrainian military (it was alleged that announcements of arms sales were made by military personnel). It is also claimed that supplying arms to Ukraine will only prolong the war, without helping Ukraine win. Here are some examples of the narratives spread on Telegram by RT:
- US city sends Ukraine weapons seized from criminals.
- Ukraine's cluster bombs are still turning against the Ukrainian army on the battlefield - UN representative.
- Donation of Danish fighter jets escalates conflict - Russian Ambassador.
- CNN Military Analysis, Retired General James Marks on how F-16 jets donated to Ukraine won't make a difference on the battlefield.
Support for Ukraine hurts the West more than Russia. Russia has repeatedly claimed that the West's support for Ukraine, in particular the introduction of sanctions and the provision of economic aid, harms the West more than Russia. The number of such falsehoods has increased each time the EU or the US has announced new sanctions or financial support packages. Disinformers claim that the EU does not care about its own citizens, because sanctions imposed on Russia make people save for basic needs.
Propagandists are also trying to create the impression that Europeans are unhappy about aid to Ukraine. The consequence of this aid is that EU countries are facing an energy crisis, rising inflation and widespread public discontent with the authorities. Thus, by spreading falsehoods about the damage done by supporting Ukraine, Russia is trying to show that the West and Ukraine are responsible for the crisis:
- A US war hawk blames Biden for Kiev's "stalled" counteroffensive.
- The dominance of the dollar and the euro is strongly challenged.
- 50,000 German companies have been closed due to insufficient funds.
- "The Ukrainian authorities are also feeding off American taxpayers' money as well as their own people's" - Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry.
- German government sounds alarm over gas prices - Bloomberg.
Ukraine's victory is impossible. Russia is spreading disinformation that Ukraine cannot win the war in an attempt to influence the Ukrainians and their allies. The narrative aims to discourage the Ukrainians and make them accept peace negotiations under unfavourable conditions. Articles about Ukraine's losses far outweighing Russia's and that Western support will not bring an end to the war only serve to confirm the prediction that Russia will win. In the case of partner countries, such misinformation is designed to encourage them to stop supporting Ukraine, suggesting that there is no point in doing so if Ukraine is almost "certain" to lose. Here are some examples of such articles distributed by RT:
- Ukraine's arms supply is almost exhausted - Sergei Shigu.
- Ukraine cannot cope with Russia's X-22 hypersonic missiles - AFU.
- US officials admit they missed an opportunity for peace in Ukraine - Politico.
Conclusions
Propaganda is a powerful tool used in geopolitical conflicts to shape public opinion and gain support for a particular agenda. In the case of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin used a series of propaganda narratives to bolster its point of view and undermine the credibility of Ukraine and its allies. Analysis of the texts provided suggests that these narratives are being used to shape international public perceptions of the conflict, to support Russia's position and to instil doubts about the legitimacy of Ukraine's actions.
It is therefore crucial to be aware of such propaganda strategies and to seek multiple sources in order to understand the big picture and to approach news about the war in Ukraine in as balanced a manner as possible.
Dr. Nicolae Tibrigan, expert coordinator Digital Forensic Team
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