Although opinions are divided, it appears that one of the most favorable scenarios for right-wing extremists in the US has come true. Conspiracy theories are a central part of Trump's platform and undermine public trust in the US government.
I use the term 'scenario' advisedly because, in the spring of this year, supporters MAGA ("Make America Great Again") were heavily promoting the conspiracy theory that the Biden administration (with the complicity of the FBI) was planning to assassinate Donald Trump.
Where did it all start?
This theory has been amplified Trump himself and his network of supporters, including Steve Bannon and Marjorie Taylor Greene. In fact, the FBI had no intention of assassinating Trump during the August 2022 search of his Mar-a-Lago residence, but followed standard procedures to avoid any violent clashes.
The anti-government conspiracy narrative was quickly disseminated on MAGA's extremist networks, with some calling for action against the FBI and others even attempting terrorist attacks.
After the FBI-organized raid at Mar-a-Lago on August 8, 2022, U.S. Navy veteran Ricky Shiffer encouraged his fellow Truth Social acolytes to "gather everything you need to be combat ready" and answer the "call to arms."
Although he never made it to the FBI office, Shiffer was killed in a shootout with police and was later suspected of links to far-right groups, including the Proud Boys.
But these conspiracies didn't stop there, and have continued in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. These conspiracies and misinformation are all the more dangerous because they fuel anti-government extremism and political violence, never disavowed by candidate Trump.
On the contrary. Conspiracy theories of this kind are a central part of Trump's political platform and have undermined public confidence in the US government and the rule of law for years.
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump at the rally in Pennsylvania has reactualized the old conspiracies to assassinate American presidents at full revs. Now Elon Musk's Platform X is a saturated channel for such toxic conspiracies aimed at further polarizing American society.
More or less controversial public figures such as Mike Collins and Marjorie Taylor Greene, accused already the Biden administration and the Democrats of plotting, while Alex Jones promoted the idea of a "Deep State" that orchestrated the attack on Trump.
The conspiracies include baseless accusations by Trump sympathizers against Antifa, but without any credible evidence. Both right-wing and left-leaning online audiences are now contributing to misinformation and polarizing public opinion, with some suggesting the attack was a "false flag" operation orchestrated by Trump supporters to boost his popularity, others convinced of Biden administration involvement.
Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians connect on the topic too, they only have the experience of 2016 with their troll factories. It remains to be seen.
Incidentally, before the FBI identified 20-year-old suspect Thomas Matthew Crooks, speculation about the weapon used and the identity of the attacker spread rapidly, fueling various partisan narratives.
American researchers also noticed that some far-right channels deleted posts immediately after the attack, possibly to hide links to the suspect. According to The Washington Post, Crooks would be officially registered as a Republican Party supporter.
US experts continue to urge restraint and caution when social media users spread information about the attack, as the United States continues to feel the shock of the worst assassination attempt on a president since the failed assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan in 1981.
In fast-moving situations, it is inevitable that a lot of false or unverified information will appear, especially on social networks. And I am more than sure that these conspiracies and misinformation have already crossed the Atlantic to intoxicate the Romanian public. At times like these, it is important to approach these events with empathy and caution as they unfold.
And to "immunize" ourselves informationally from these waves of misinformation, we can apply the principle of Ockham's Razor. This principle suggests that when faced with multiple explanations for an event, the simplest explanation, which makes the fewest assumptions, is often the most likely, applying the following strategies:
- Simplifying explanations: instead of accepting complex and elaborate theories involving many actors and hidden motives, we should look for more straightforward and obvious explanations. For example, instead of believing that an attack was orchestrated by multiple conspiratorial entities, we should first consider the possibility of an isolated incident or individual action.
- Source verification: information must come from credible and verified sources. If a theory is based on anonymous or unreliable sources, it is more likely to be false.
- Prudence in disseminating information: before distributing information, we should make sure that it is confirmed and that we are not contributing to the spread of misinformation.
- Empathy and caution: in tense situations, it's important to approach information with empathy and caution, avoiding emotional or impulsive reactions that can further fuel confusion, polarization ('us versus them') and panic.
Note - I chose a photo of the rally scene after the assassination attempt, not using the Trump campaign's over-dramatized iconic photo. The photo belongs to Anna Moneymaker/Getty Imageseste and was taken from The Guardian.
By Dr. Nicolae Țîbrigan, expert coordinator Digital Forensic Team
